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Robert Todd Carroll

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the gambler's fallacy, ڻ

ڻ (the gambler's fallacy), Ͼ Ȯ ̸ ǰ ִ Ϳ ұϰ, Ŀ Ͼ ǿ ޾, Ȯ ȭ ϴ ϴ ̴.

, ִ ĶϾƿ "۷Ʈ" ϴ ֿ ϴ ִ. ̰ 51 ڷκ, ڽ ϴ ڸ 6 ߴ ̴. ⿡ ÷ Ȯ ϱ? ֿ ´ ˾ƺ. 1998 725 缱 ȣ, 5, 7, 21, 32, 44, 46̾. 1600޷̴. ڸ 6 θ 1 ŵ . 5 170 ־, 1500޷ տ ־. 6 4 9715 ־, 72޷. ׸ 3 176,657̰, 5 ޷.

ǻ͸ , 1 51 6 ڸ 1 ʰ 1 ٸ, Ƹ 7 ٷ ѹ ڰ .

6 ڰ 6 ´ Ȯ, 18,009,460 1 ̴. 5 ڰ ִ Ȯ 66,702 1, 4 1213 1, 3 63 1 ȴ.

ݾ ʰ ִ Ȯ, հ 60 1 ̴.

100ž ٸ, 6 ڸ 1 տ ִ Ȯ, 3,463⿡ 1 ̴. $25,000 ٸ, 14⿡ 1 1  ÷ ̴. 50 ִٰ ϸ, ִ ȿ 1 ̶ 1 ÷Ƿ, 6,927 ޷ ġ ̴. , ׷ ص Ƹ ̴. ÷ǴĿ ٸ 200 ޷ ڰ ̴.

׷, ڸ 6 ܳϰ, 5 ͸ ϸ ܼϰ ȴ. 100ž , 12.8⿡ 1 ȸ 5 ڰ ̴. ׷, ܿ 1,500޷ ؼ 67,000޷ Ѵ.

󸶶 Ź ÷Ƿ, 120 ޷, ȴ. 10޷ (ݳ) ȴ. , " ÷DZ ؼ" 110 ޷ ս ȴ. ? (⼭ ϰ ִ "ݵ ÷"̶ , 1998 7 25 ȯұݾ׿ ǰϴ ̰, ̿ 쿡 ؼ .)

Ȯ ̱ ؼ ֱ 缱 ȣ ڸ ϰų Ȥ ֱ, ȣ ϸ ̶ ִ. ̰ ٷ ڻ ̴. Ȯ ׻ ̴.  ڰ õǾ ̴. ڻ , 귿 ҿ 3 ȸ Ա , ڰ ϴ ڻ簡 ȴ. Ȯ, ݱ Դ° ׻ ϴ.

, չ Ƕ̵Ǹ .  ũ ؼ װͺ ξ ׵ ұ ̴.

(: Ÿ 꿡 ġ , ͵ ƴϴ. Ϸ å ̴. )


б ڷ

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Copyright 1998
Robert Todd Carroll

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