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Robert Todd Carroll

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true-believer syndrome, ͽ ı

The need to believe in phony wonders sometimes exceeds not only logic but, seemingly, even sanity.
  --The Rev. Canon William V. Rauscher

The true-believer syndrome merits study by science. What is it that compels a person, past all reason, to believe the unbelievable. How can an otherwise sane individual become so enamored of a fantasy, an imposture, that even after it's exposed in the bright light of day he still clings to it--indeed, clings to it all the harder?
  --M. Lamar Keene

ͽ ı̶ M.Lamar Keene  ʻ̳ ڿ ͵ ۵ ̶ Ű е ұϰ ̰͵ ϴ ָ Ѵ. Ų ¥ ʴɷڷμ ߹۵ Ͽ. Ƹ ȿ . ¥ žġ, ʴɷ, äη, ̴ TV Ѿ .

Ų "the true-believer syndrome" ¥ ŵ ;ϴ ̶ ϰ ִ. ֳϸ ٰŸ ǽ ˸鼭 ž  ̰ μ ̴. ׷ ͽ ı ޴ ڱ ڽſ ǽ Ѵٴ ϱ ̴. ̳ hoaxer ð ٸ  ǿ ؼ ſ (ž) ϴ , װ ˰ ִ ̶ ϴ ó иϴ.  ׷ ̷ ڱ ⸸ ڽſ ϴ ʿ ƴϴ. ڽſ ϴ װ ̶ ˰ ִ ϴ´(believe) ʿϴ. ̰ ʴ. ̹ װ ˰ ִ ϰų . (belife believe in ٸ ̸ belief in (belief) ƴ϶ ŷ(trust) ̴.) ( : ⼭ ϴ (belief) Ű ¿ ϴ ϴ Դϴ.)̳ ҽ Ǽ ɼ ִ. ˰ ִ(knowledge) Ǽ ߸ ˾Ҵٰ ϴ (error) ո ˷  Ȯ ̻ Ͼٴ ǹѴ. "ʴɷ" ȴٴ е Ű ִ. ׷ ʻ Ͼٰ ִ. 쿡 ڽ ̴ ̰ ڽſ ϴ ̶ ʴ´. ͽ ŵҿ ɸ ܼ (fraud) Ÿ ſ Ը ʰ ϴ ŵ鿡 Ը ΰ ִ 𸥴. ϴ ŵ κ Լ ̰ 巯ٴ еȴ. ƹ Ⱑ 巯ٰ ؼ ּ ѹ ¥ ׻ Ѵ. ʴɷ "" . ׷Ƿ ͽڴ Ȥ ׳డ 缺 ոȭϷ ̴. ⸦ ϸ鼭 ̷ ޾Ƶ̴ ̱ , ƴϴ.

ͽڵ ʴɷڵ Ӽ 巯 ұϰ ׵ ŷϴ(believe in) ϴ ʾ δ. ̶ų ̶ 巯 ŷϴ ̼̰ ׷ ġų иϴ. ׵ Ϻδ и Ϻδ ׵鿡  ʴɷ ä ʴɷ ִٰ ϹǷν ׵ ڽ ̴ ̴. ׵ ʴɷ ʴ´ٰ ص δ ʻ ִٴ ̴. ġ 󿡴 ʴɷ ٰ ϴ δ ʴɷ ϵ, ڱ ڽ ʴɷ ʾҴٰ δ ʴɷ ִٴ ̴.

¶ų ũ Ǿ 󿡴 2 Ÿ ͽڵ ִ. Keene ſ ݴǴ ʻ̳ ڿ ŷѴ. ׵ ž ݴ ŵ е Ƶ μ ʴ´. ̵ īν Ⱑ 巯 ׸ ҽϴ źϴ ̴. Keene ʵ κ ʻ ڿ ǻ ϰ ;ϱ äη) ⿡  ε ׵ ž Ѵ. ٸ Ÿ ȣ۰ å "ͽ (The True Believer)" ̴. Ÿ ̼, ӽ ϴ ǻ縦 ϴ Ͱ 忡 ڽ ñų Ȥ Խ 翡 ڽ ñ.

ͽ ŵ ֶ, ̹ٹ, James Van Praagh α⸦ ̵ ̸ 鿡Լ û Ӽ 鼭 ưٴ Ű е ұϰ ̷ ʴɷ Ȥ ڿ ɷ ٰ ϴ ϴ° ؼ ƹ Ѵ. ǿ ͽ ŵ ȯڴ ׵ ̼ ڽ ñ, ־ ׵ ϴ ͵ ǹ̰ . ſ ׵鿡Դ  ǹ̵ . ǿ ̷ ɸ ִ. ׵ ϰ ſ ׵ ߸̶ .

и, ͽ ŵҿ  ϴٸ װ и 屸 ̶ Ǿ ̴. ׷ Ϻ Ҹ(immortality), Ȥ , Ȥ ֱ ࿡ ׷ Ƹ 亯 ̴. ̰ Ƹ Ҿ(insecurity) ̴. ȣ(Eric Hoffer) ׷ ϴ δ. ״ ߴ.

ڽſ ؼ پ ϴ 缺 ٰ ϴ ϼ , , Ǵ ׸  ؼ Ϸ Ѵ....

ڽ Ű澵 ġ ִ Ű澴. ׷ Ű澵 ġ ٸ ٸ Ͽ Ű Ἥ ڽ ġ Ͽ Ѵ...

ڴ ҿϰ Ҿϴ. ״ , װ źε ھ(self)κ ڽŰ  װ 쿬 ԵǴ ϴ ̶ ϰ ǹǷν ڽŰ ȴ. ̷ ͸ Ű ž ̸ ״ ȿ õ ȴ...״ ڽ װ ϴ ڰ ȴ. ׸ ״ ĥ غ Ǿִ.

ȣ۴ ͽ ŵ   ൿ ڽ åӰ ϰ , δ㰨 ο ϴ ִٰ ϴ ϴ. Ƹ ȣ۴ ſ ɰ κп ־ ɰ Ҹ ̴.

պġ ĶϾ ָ (California State University) ɸ ̾(Barry Singer) (Victor Benassi) , ݴǴ Ÿ տ ұϰ ʴɷ ϰ ϴ Ͽ. ׵ ũ ̳(Craig Reynolds) 縦 ɸй 4 ǿ Ʈ ֵ ״. 2 ǿ װ ʰ Ƹ Ʈ ־. ٻ鿡 ״ ڽ п̸ ʴɷ ִٰ ־. ̵ ǿ ɸ ״ п̳ ٸ ʴɷ ִٴ ʴ´ٰ ־. ٸ ǿ װ ̸ ־. ̰ſ ׷ 2/3 ũ(Craig) Ͼٰ ߴ. "" "ʴɷ" ǿ Ϳ ſ . ׵ ٽ Ұ ٸ 2 ǿ ǽߴ. װ ṵ̃ ʴɷ ׵ տ  Ʈ ְڴٰ ״  Ʈ ׵鿡 ָ ġ װ а ʴɷ ó ̰ ̶ ߴ. ׷ ұϰ ù Ѵ л ṵ̃ ʴɷ ִٰ Ͼ.

̰ſ л鿡 簡 ṵ̃ ״ ִٰ ϴ Ҵ. κ л 簡 ״ ̶µ ߴ. ׷ ׵ л鿡 װ ݴ ſ ߾ Ƽ ṵ̃ ʴɷ ִٴ ٲ ִ Ҵ. л ٲپ ṵ̃ ʴɷڶ ϴ л 55% Ǿ.

׷ ٽ л鿡 ʴɷڶ ߿ Ǵ Ʈ ̿ؼ ̴° ߴ. κ ʴɷڵ ϴ ǰ ġ ̷ . ٽ ṵ̃ ʴɷڶ ٲ ٽ ߴ. ̹ ٲپ. ׷ 52% л ṵ̃ ʴɷ ִٰ Ͼ. [Benassi and Singer; Hofstadter]

鿡 ־, ϰ ;ϴ ſ ݴǴ ſ ؼ ִ ɷº ξ .

õ ׸ : ad hoc hypothesis, cold reading, communal reinforcement, confirmation bias, control study, Occam's razor, the post hoc fallacy, selective thinking, self-deception, subjective validation, testimonials, and wishful thinking.


б ڷ

Benassi, Victor and Barry Singer. "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time," The Skeptical Inquirer, Winter 1980/81.

Hoffer, Eric. The True Believer : Thoughts on the Nature of Mass Movements (HarperCollins, 1989 reissue).

Hofstadter, Douglas.  Metamagical Themas: Questing for the Essence of Mind and Pattern, (New York: Basic Books, 1985), chapter 5, "World Views in Collision: The Skeptical Inquirer versus the National Enquirer." (Hofstadter reported on the Bennasi and Singer study in his monthly column for Scientific American in February 1982.)

Keene, M. Lamar. The Psychic Mafia (Prometheus, 1997).

Randi, James. The Faith Healers (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 1987).

Randi, James. The Truth about Uri Geller , (Buffalo, NY: Prometheus Books, 1982).

Raymo, Chet. Skeptics and True Believers: The Exhilarating Connection Between Science and Religion (Walker & Co., 1998).

Copyright 2000
Robert Todd Carroll

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